Six Months into Operation “Roaring Lion”: An Assessment
Key Points
- Iran is weaker than at any point since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
- Its military and nuclear capabilities have suffered severe damage, but the regime has survived and it retains significant offensive capabilities.
- The Strait of Hormuz has lost much of its value as a strategic Iranian lever.
- The blockade caused economic damage and drove up energy prices, but it failed to trigger a global economic crisis.
- Iran’s weakening has shifted the regional balance of power in favor of the Sunni axis, particularly Turkey.
- Ankara emerged from the campaign without suffering the damage sustained by the Gulf states, while its principal rival Iran was weakened.
- The United States remains the world’s leading military power and is now better positioned strategically for a potential confrontation with rival powers.
- The war exposed significant limitations in its ability to sustain a prolonged campaign, including finite stocks of interceptors and munitions, the vulnerability of American bases, and sensitivity to domestic economic and political costs.
- Damage to energy and transportation infrastructure in the Gulf demonstrated that the Iranian threat is not merely a military problem, but a threat to the economic model on which the Gulf states depend.
- China and Russia have supported Iran but remain unwilling to risk a direct military confrontation with the United States on its behalf. Both provided Tehran with support in various forms but refrained from direct military intervention.
- The war has strengthened Israel’s standing as a strategic asset for the United States and its allies.
- Israel is not isolated, but international attitudes toward it are increasingly polarized, and its standing in American public opinion is at a low point.
- Israel is deepening strategic partnerships with India, the Gulf states, Greece, Azerbaijan, Somaliland, and additional countries in Europe and South America.
- Israel has established a deep security zone in Lebanon and thwarted Iran’s attempts to link the different fronts.
- Israel must prepare for the possibility that a weakened Iranian regime will seek to alter the strategic balance through escalation.
*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.