Prof. Kobi Michael: Israel could continue strikes on Iran without US involvement, although it would hope for Trump to re-enter the war.

Analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC suggests that even if a ceasefire holds, Israel and Iran “will remain locked in a persistent, lower-level conflict rather than transition to a stable peace”, a state that has endured for much of the “shadow war” between the countries over the past 40 years.

Published in Inews, April 09, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Kobi Michael argues that the region is entering a fundamentally new strategic phase, marked by a significantly weakened Iran—both at the regime and state levels. He frames the current ceasefire as unstable and likely temporary, with a high probability of renewed conflict driven primarily by Iran.

He also highlights internal fragmentation within Iran, tensions with regional actors such as Qatar, and a shift in strategic focus away from Hamas, which he describes as increasingly marginal in the broader Middle Eastern landscape.

A briefing together with Media Central for foreign journalists in Israel, which took place on April 9, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Prof. Kobi Michael: If international actors do not ‘buy’ Hamas’ games and realize that they have no real intention to disarm, they may come to the conclusion that only the IDF can do this – and thus build international support for such an action. In my opinion, this will be easier and simpler: Hamas is currently weaker, the IDF is more prepared, and most importantly, there is no constraint of hostages in the field.

I would like to remind you that on October 7, the IDF did not have a plan to occupy the Strip. During two years of fighting, we have gained more experience, and even today, fighting continues along the Yellow Line. There are daily clashes there with Hamas, which is trying to cross the line, harm IDF soldiers, and continue to strengthen militarily.

Published in The Jerusalem Post, April 07, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Prof. Kobi Michael discusses the strategic importance of the joint military efforts against Iran, highlighting how successful operations encourage the U.S. and Israel to persist until the Iranian regime reaches its breaking point.

He explains that while the Iranian leadership displays resilience and targets American assets and tries to exhaust the Israeli society and the Gulf countries, in order to increase pressures on the US to cease the war, the US considers a game changer by isolating Tehran from energy and transportation and actually paralyizing the regime and facilitates the conditions for its collapse by the Iranian people.

Finally, he emphasizes that a significant weakening or change of the regime would dismantle the support system for regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, fundamentally transforming the Middle East’s security architecture

The full interview took place on ILTV on April 5, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

https://youtu.be/q4_Tnl62vWA

Joseph Rozen: Israel and Jordan should join and I believe it’s only a matter of time. Israel is already backing and connecting such connectivity initiatives in the Middle East.

The IMEC was very much based on regional plans for transportation first presented by Israel Katz, the state’s then transport minister and now defence minister.

I think that normalisation should be built up gradually and that means facilitating regional connectivity in energy, tech and trade.

Dialogue could be conducted through a working group, That alone will generate de facto normalisation without having the political burden of cutting ribbons in fancy ceremonies.

The Iran war had brought many countries in the region much closer. There were reports of Saudi privately encouraging the US in the conflict.

Published in The Telegraph, April 04,  2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Prof. Kobi Michael argues that the conflicts involving Hezbollah and Iran should be viewed as a single, deeply coordinated war front where Iran utilizes its proxies to pressure Israeli social resilience.

He explains that because Hezbollah’s current leadership under Naim Qassem is weak, senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers have taken direct control, commanding and training units in Lebanon . Furthermore, he suggests that the United States may aim to isolate Tehran by destroying its infrastructure and communications to paralyze the regime and potentially facilitate its collapse from within.

The full interview took place on I24 Channel on April 2, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Ruth Pines Feldman:The United States has currently assembled a significant military presence in the Middle East, creating a massive regional ‘armada’ that provides the flexibility to address multiple threats at once.

Such a move would inevitably divert critical military and diplomatic attention away from primary goals, contradicting the clear American preference to stabilise the region and drive toward a decisive conclusion of the military campaign.

Even so, the US would still want to build a “broad coalition, including Nato forces to join the effort: This is not because the US lacks the military capacity to handle it alone, but rather to send a powerful message of a united front against enemy forces.

Published in The Telegraph, March  30, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Prof. Kobi Michael: I think that at the end of the day, if there are differences between Israel and President Trump, the differences are with regard to tactics, not even strategy. Both sides remain focused on outcomes. President Trump is fully devoted, he is fully invested in this war, and he will not finish the war without achieving significant achievements. He understands that beyond press conferences and tweets, there are facts on the ground, and people will judge whether this was a success or a fiasco.

Israel knew Trump’s intentions to opt for negotiations with Iran but for sure Israel won’t be able to face the Iranian threat and Hezbollah simultaneously. Trump is planning to do something else. This is the reason for the arrival in the region of the 82nd division and the Marines … in order to launch a very comprehensive ground military operation that will change the entire face of the war.

Published in The Media Line, March  27, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Prof. Kobi Michael: All the land between the international border and the Litani River will be cleaned. There will be no Hezbollah there, and no Shiites will be there. There will be no Shia villages there anymore. And Hezbollah will weaken, it will be weakened to the degree that maybe the Lebanese Army will be able to take responsibility and control, and then this will be maybe the ripest moment to accelerate the negotiation between Israel and Lebanon for reaching peace between both countries.

Published in Washington Examiner, March  26, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Prof. Kobi Michael argues that the current conflict is entering a new phase focused on dismantling Iran’s nuclear and proxy capabilities to prevent the regime from remaining a “spoiler” for regional peace.

He frames this struggle as a historic moral mission for the United States, essential for establishing a new regional architecture and defeating the radicalism supported by China and Russia

The full interview took place on ILTV on March 26, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.