“Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation,” US President Donald Trump tweeted in January 2020, after the elimination of Qassem Soleimani. It was not the first time he had used that wording to urge Iran to prefer the negotiating track. The memorandum of understanding with it will likely serve as convincing proof of that.

The full details of the understandings reached by the sides have yet to become clear, but what has already been published is enough to substantiate the concerns in Jerusalem.

A preliminary hint of what lies ahead was provided last week by US Vice President JD Vance, who made clear that “the interests of the US in an agreement with Iran may be different from those of Israel.” He added, “Israel will like it or not like it, but this is the interest of the US.”

Survival, hope and rebuilding 

It should be said at once: Any deal with Iran is worse than the alternatives, because it establishes the legitimacy of the extremist regime and gives it the most important thing it needs: survival, hope and resources for rehabilitation.

According to reports, the memorandum of understanding offers the Iranians far more than that. It heralds the beginning of the end of the severe economic distress that sent masses of citizens into the streets in protest and fueled the internal threat to the regime’s survival. Opening the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian oil exports will allow Tehran to earn millions of dollars every day. Added to that are the billions expected to flow to Iran once the memorandum of understanding enters into force and during its implementation.

Including the Lebanese front in the framework of the deal is a gift to Iran. Not only will it ensure a space of immunity for Hezbollah, the most important proxy organization from Iran’s perspective, but it will also gain recognition of its status as a player in the Lebanese front. If the expectation was to dismantle Iran’s hold over the proxy organizations, this agreement actually tightens it. This is happening as the administration of Gen. Joseph Aoun is singing a different tune and desperately needs to remove the suffocating patronage of the ayatollahs’ regime.

And not only that. As far as is known, the deal makes no reference to the issue of ballistic missiles. Iran’s progress in this field created a strategic threat not only to its neighbors and the countries of the Middle East, but also to Europe.

The sequence set out in the memorandum of understanding means the US is paying Iran in cash and receiving in return a postdated check whose details are unclear and whose coverage is doubtful. According to the reports, the nuclear issues will be discussed only at a later stage, when the regime in Tehran is no longer in its current distress and when the effectiveness of the US levers of pressure, military and economic, will be lower, if they exist at all.

If today, four months before the midterm elections, Trump is avoiding a resumption of the fighting, it can be assumed that after 60 days, when the elections are even closer, he will hesitate sevenfold. They know this in Tehran as well, and therefore they will not rush to reach understandings on the nuclear issues, which are complicated in any case.

Trump entered the memorandum of understanding while being seen by the entire world as someone eager to reach an agreement, at almost any price. This is being seen both by America’s adversaries and by the leaders of the countries in the Middle East. Reports of certain countries in the region moving closer to Iran are evidence that their leaders understand that the US does not intend to finish the job, and that it is worth preparing with an alternative safety net.

There is no doubt that Washington’s conduct surrounding the agreement will project weakness and affect the US’ standing in the Middle East, and not only there.

To all this must be added the sense of betrayal among the regime’s opponents in Iran, who risked their lives, paid heavy prices and are still waiting for the same “green light” that they say was promised to them as part of the efforts to topple the regime. One can only imagine what this does to the Trump administration’s credibility.

The achievements of the current war against Iran should not be dismissed in any way. They are many and significant. It is precisely against this background that the frustration grows, because of the assumption that these achievements make it possible to achieve better results against Tehran.

As for Israel, the world and the countries of the region received a demonstration not only of its capabilities, but also of its daring, determination and unified mobilization in the sustained effort to remove an existential threat.

Israel does not need to issue declarations. Its enemies know very well that these characteristics will continue to exist even in a reality of an arrangement.

Israel is not a party to the deal. It must adhere to its traditional position, according to which it will do what is necessary to defend its security. This applies to all fronts, and certainly to the Lebanese one. It does not need to poke Trump in the eye, argue with him or defy him.

As Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir put it, our actions will speak.

Published in  Israel Hayom, June  15, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s latest Hajj declaration reaffirms the “2040 doctrine” and illustrates that generational change in Tehran will not bring moderation. In the face of the US push for a delaying agreement that will funnel billions to Tehran, Israel must shift its paradigm and seek the active collapse of the Iranian octopus’ head.

While the Trump administration seeks to formulate a deal with the Iranian regime, its leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is openly declaring his intention to advance and cultivate the vision of Israel’s destruction.

In a message he published last Tuesday for the Hajj, Mojtaba validated his father’s 2015 declaration that Israel, the “cancerous tumor,” would not survive until 2040.

Mojtaba’s statement therefore serves as evidence of his commitment to the contract of annihilation decreed against Israel by the founder of the Islamic regime, Ruhollah Khomeini, in his famous speech of Aug. 15, 1979.

Accordingly, Palestine Square in Tehran was adorned with a banner showing an hourglass counting down to Israel’s end, stating that 5,218 days remain until its demise and that it will not survive the next 15 years.

Granted, “The Voice of Iran,” an online publication issued by the office of Iran’s leader, stated in an article published the next day that Israel would be destroyed on its own as a result of an accelerated process of internal collapse. However, Iran’s pattern of action shows that Tehran is pursuing the active destruction of Israel.

Operational plan went awry

In September 2015, as will be recalled, then-Iranian leader Ali Khamenei for the first time put an expiry date on Israel, declaring that it would be destroyed by 2040. Despite statements in Iran that Israel would be destroyed on its own as a result of a socioeconomic process and an internal political-security crisis, a rare remark by a senior Iranian official exposed Iranian preparations for Israel’s destruction.

It was at a conference in Tehran in February 2018, which dealt with the destruction of Israel, that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, later foreign minister in President Ebrahim Raisi’s government, declared that Iran had a plan for how to implement Khamenei’s statement, but that he could not detail it in the media. In 2019, statements by then-Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami and the head of the IRGC Operations Division, Abbas Nilforoushan, revealed the progress of the Iranian plan to destroy Israel.

Salami explained that eliminating Israel had turned from a vision into an attainable goal. Nilforoushan declared that Iran had succeeded in encircling Israel from all sides and, hinting at the convergence of arenas, added that any Israeli aggression against one component of the axis of resistance would ignite a regional war against it.

As can be learned from documents captured by the IDF during Operation Swords of Iron in Gaza, the Quds Force drew on Khamenei’s vision of Israel’s destruction as the justification for allocating increased financial and military aid to Hamas’ military wing. This was done with the knowledge that the assistance would be directed toward carrying out especially large offensive initiatives against Israel.

At the same time, Hamas initiated increased coordination with Hezbollah and the Quds Force to advance a crushing multi-front attack aimed at eliminating Israel. But Sinwar was in a hurry. He launched the massacre without waiting for final coordination with Hezbollah and Iran, assuming that they would join him once they saw the attack begin.

A warning sign for Israel

Even after the Oct. 7 attack, senior officials in Iran’s security establishment called for advancing a multi-front attack, based on the lessons of Oct. 7, in order to eliminate Israel. Many of them were eliminated in Operations Rising and Roaring Lion.

In early May, Mehdi Mohammadi, a senior security analyst who also serves as an adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Majlis and a member of the Supreme National Security Council, repeated his call from November 2025 and urged the regime to advance a “large collective operation against Israel” by the axis of resistance under Iran’s leadership, aimed at destroying Israel.

Mohammadi explained that the war had weakened Israel and that Iran had succeeded in pushing it into a corner. Against the backdrop of these remarks, which are still being heard in regime and media discourse about advancing the vision of Israel’s destruction through a multi-front axis attack, Mojtaba’s words appear to serve as a compass and a signal of direction.

Mojtaba’s Hajj message was translated into Arabic and also distributed to the broader public in the region. It therefore appears that he seeks to present himself as driven by religious fervor and highly motivated to double the regime’s efforts to export the revolution, thanks to the gains Iran accumulated in the war and despite the difficulties it suffered during it.

From his perspective, it seems, Iran is at the starting line for realizing the final victory over Israel that his father envisioned and promised for years. Therefore, the timeline Mojtaba set for Israel’s destruction, 2040, as a continuation of the vision of Israel’s destruction cultivated by his father, could give the Revolutionary Guards and the various players in the axis of resistance a timeframe for implementing an operational plan to achieve this goal.

Mojtaba also detailed his vision regarding the future of the US presence in the region. He expressed his commitment to the vision his father outlined for removing the US military presence from the region, and called on the countries of the region to cooperate with Iran’s efforts to lead a new regional order. Nevertheless, according to indications, Trump supports a deal that would focus on removing or postponing the nuclear threat posed by Iran, and does not intend to act to topple the regime or implement his promise to assist the Iranian opposition.

That contrasts with the Israeli approach, which supports toppling the regime, as reflected in the war objective, which was intended to weaken the regime and enable the Iranian people to overthrow it. The continuation of contacts between Tehran and Washington toward reaching an agreement despite Mojtaba’s declaration lends further validity to the difference between the Israeli and American strategies toward the Iranian regime.

The billions of dollars the Iranian regime would pocket as a result of any agreement reached would allow it, first, to ensure its continued existence and later to advance its vision of Israel’s destruction. Unlike the US, Israel cannot adopt a policy of delay in the face of the Iranian threat.

It was in mid-December 2022, at a ceremony in Gaza marking the 35th anniversary of Hamas’ founding, that Sinwar declared publicly, “We will come to you in a sweeping flood, and with countless rockets. We will come to you in a flood of soldiers without limit. We will come to you with millions from among the members of our nation, wave after wave.”

Israel cannot ignore the existential threat posed by the Iranian regime under Mojtaba. The expansion of the ground maneuver in Lebanon and the elimination of the heads of Hamas’ military wing, Izz al-Din Haddad and Mohammed Odeh, therefore also constitute important achievements in the broader picture vis-à-vis the Iranian plan to destroy Israel.

If Israel does not act to topple the Iranian regime through the Iranian people, it will resemble a boxer who, in a boxing match against his opponent, tries only to weaken him, while the opponent strikes him in order to knock him down.

Published in  Israel Hayom, June  01, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

The justification for the 40-days of war with Iran, in a large part, turns on the question of whether or not it will achieve a better result than the 2015 Iran deal, known as the JCPOA. If it does, Trump will have vindicated his decade-long position that he could make a better deal. If it doesn’t, he will have proven that Obama’s cautious and accommodating diplomacy was ultimately wiser and more realistic.

Many of the key details remain unclear but the answer to this question can be assessed by comparing the two situations as they currently stand.

The first critical question is what will become of Iran’s enriched uranium. The JCPOA saw Iran relinquish almost its entire stockpile of enriched uranium, essentially resetting the clock. This was the primary achievement of the 2015 deal. In the current deal, Trump is still insisting that Iran relinquish its entire stockpile of what is assessed to be the 440 kg of 60% enriched material. But what of the other 9 tons of 20% and 5% enriched uranium? This remains unclear.

To read the full article

“Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation,” Donald Trump tweeted in January 2020, days after the elimination of Qassem Soleimani.

It was not the only time he expressed himself this way during the chapters of confrontation with the Islamic Republic. If the media reports accurately reflect the details of the deal now taking shape with Iran, it appears that history is repeating itself, and the Iranians, even after the severe blow they sustained, are managing to maneuver Washington into a framework that will save the regime.

Where are the problems?

Even before diving into the details, it is important to look at the broader picture: The deal will grant legitimacy to the extremist regime in Tehran and prove that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can survive even the immense pressure exerted by the global superpower. As a result, the regime will continue to cast its threatening shadow over the Middle East, while receiving renewed validation for its grip on the Strait of Hormuz as an effective pressure lever.

The resources that flow to the regime will enable it to rebuild its capabilities and, no less important, sell its citizens the very thing that drove them into the streets: hope for economic improvement. The deal will give the regime an insurance policy against a Western or Israeli military strike. But even without that, from the moment it is signed, the regime will no longer fear Washington. After all, which US president would want to become entangled in a confrontation with Iran when this is what the closing chord looks like in the campaign waged by the most confrontational president Tehran has ever known?

And now, the details

Nuclear program: Trump’s representatives sought a quick achievement in the form of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and calming the energy market. The price the Iranians demanded for this was postponing the nuclear issues to a later stage, when the pressure levers against them would already be less threatening and when the prestige of the US president would be held hostage in their hands. In such a situation, their approach in the nuclear talks will be minimum concessions for maximum returns. As they have done so far, they will delay their consent until the latest possible moment, and even then give it only after extracting additional concessions.

It can be assumed that in the time Trump has left until the end of his term, Iran will not provoke him and will not give him a pretext to attack it. It will use this period to regroup without deviating from the framework of the understandings, but in a way that will allow it to renew its nuclear efforts as soon as his term ends. The knowledge and production capabilities that remain in its possession under the deal will serve it in doing so. It can be assumed that the current campaign has strengthened Tehran’s drive to obtain nuclear weapons, after seeing that nothing else could prevent its enemies from striking it again.

The missile program: Judging by the media reports, the emerging deal completely ignores this threat. It does not impose effective restrictions, in terms of ranges or quantities, on the production of long-range ballistic missiles and UAV systems that directly threaten the Middle East and Europe.

It is true that the current campaign reduced Iran’s stockpiles and also damaged its production capabilities. However, in the current technological era, and especially against the backdrop of Iran’s ties with China, the pace of rehabilitation is faster than in the past. Israel and its neighbors, as well as Europe, could find themselves, before long, threatened by an advanced and sophisticated ballistic missile array.

The implications for the Lebanese front: If the reports are accurate that the deal to end the war is also supposed to include the Lebanese front, then it is expected to strengthen Iran’s influence there. If we add to this the funds Iran will be able to channel to Hezbollah, it amounts to a significant tailwind for the Lebanese Shiite organization and an upgrade in its regional status, after the difficult period it has gone through since November 2024.

Influence on Hamas, the Houthis and Islamic terrorist organizations: Ending the war with such an deal will provide encouragement and inspiration to all radical Islamist elements. The interpretation they will give this situation will be one thing: The global superpower leading the war against radical Islam is unable to impose its will on it.

And we have not yet spoken about the conclusions the countries of the region will draw regarding their relations with the Iranian regime, or about the effects of the sense of betrayal among Iranian citizens who are still waiting for the green light to go out and demonstrate against the regime.

The emerging deal does not erase the tremendous achievements made in the war with Iran. Certainly not Israel’s achievements. The sense of a missed opportunity is strengthened precisely because of this, given the assessment that the balance of power makes it possible to end the campaign with better results than those reflected in the deal.

Where do we go from here?

First, the picture regarding the talks has still not become clear. Even if it is close to what emerges from the media reports, this is still not the final word. The many issues that remain open provide Trump with countless footholds he can use to change the picture, should he wish to do so.

Either way, Israel must present its concerns in a substantive and non-defiant manner, while making clear that it reserves the right to defend its security against emerging threats on all front. Israel’s freedom of action must remain off limits in any agreement.

Published in Israel Hayom, on May 25, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

The US Justice  Department’s announcement in recent days of a successful operation to arrest Mohammed Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a senior figure in Iran’s network of proxies, offers a chilling glimpse into the depth of Tehran’s octopus-like reach into the heart of both America and Europe.

Al-Saadi is not just another junior operative. He is a senior commander in Kata’ib Hezbollah, the spearhead of Iran’s proxy network in Iraq, who previously worked closely with Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, both of whom were eliminated by the US in 2020.

This time, however, it is not a counterterrorism operation limited to the Middle East, but the exposure of a transnational terror network that operated in Canada, the US and Europe. The indictment filed against him in a federal court in New York includes six counts of serious terrorism offenses and attributes to him direct involvement in nearly 20 attacks and attempted attacks in the West.

Al-Saadi, who was arrested in Turkey and extradited to the US, directed, according to FBI data, a sequence of 18 terrorist attacks across Europe over a period of just three months during the current year. The evidence reveals that in early April he was recorded instructing an undercover US agent to carry out a coordinated attack against a synagogue in New York and additional Jewish institutions in Los Angeles and Arizona.

The West hesitates in the face of the threat

The exposure of this network directly links al-Saadi to the activation of a new and secret Iranian proxy operating under the name Harakat Ashab al-Yamin. The organization was established by the Iranian regime as a subversive response to the military campaign launched by the US and Israel against the regime in Tehran.

The organization’s list of operations demonstrates its audacity: an attack against an American bank in Amsterdam in mid-March, the torching of a synagogue in Skopje in North Macedonia in mid-April, and a stabbing attack in London against two Jewish civilians in late April. This came alongside a series of explosions and arson attacks against Jewish targets in Belgium and the Netherlands.

This reality again proves the direct threat posed by the Iranian regime to national security in Europe. The European Union did cross a significant red line several months ago when it added the Revolutionary Guards to its list of terrorist organizations, but in the UK the picture is more complex.

In late March, the British Foreign Office reprimanded the Iranian ambassador over espionage targeting Jewish centers in the kingdom, but official London is still dragging its feet and refusing to apply a sweeping terrorist designation to the Revolutionary Guards. Against this backdrop, US members of Congress recently urged the British government to end its hesitation.

Europe’s division and weakness

The American pressure is bearing partial fruit: During a visit in late April by Prime Minister Keir Starmer to a London synagogue that had been attacked, he pledged to introduce a bill outlawing the organization in order to “ensure that the Jewish community feels safe.”

Al-Saadi’s arrest leaves no room for doubt: The Iranian regime represents a clear and immediate danger to the sovereignty of Western countries. This danger is worsening as Iran develops its ballistic missile program, whose operational range already covers large parts of the European continent.

The Iranian launch toward the British-American base at Diego Garcia in late March demonstrated a launch capability at a range of 3,800 kilometers. This is a direct threat that places major European cities, including London, Paris and Rome, within immediate striking range.

Yet precisely in the face of this growing threat, the West is exposing its weakness. While the US is acting to choke off Iranian aggression, key European countries are choosing a line of panicked appeasement. The peak of this trend was reflected in the refusal by France, Spain and Italy to allow US transport planes carrying critical weapons to Israel to pass through their airspace.

This policy only intensifies Iranian pressure. Those who refuse to assist their allies in wartime against Iranian aggression discover that Tehran’s terrorism does not stop in the Middle East, but is knocking at the gates of Europe and the US. The only way to ensure public safety is not to contain the proxies, but to eradicate the head of the snake in Tehran.

Published in  Israel Hayom, May  18, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

As Iran’s remaining leadership attempts to stretch out the war, counting on Western fragility, it is becoming clear that the steps being taken by the US, and its president, Donald Trump, are not simply a collection of random, tactical moves but rather are strategic and game-changing.

Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion have achieved their core strategic objectives: halting Iran’s advance toward nuclear weapons capability and significantly degrading its ballistic missile program – both of which posed a significant threat to Israel, Arab states, and Western interests.

It is dishonest to deny this. It is politically jaundiced to allege that the war was nothing more than reckless adventurism and to call it a slam-dunk failure.

Consider the clear and present danger posed by Iran prior to the war. It had nearly one thousand pounds (440 kg.) of enriched uranium, close enough to weapons grade that the IAEA said the Iranians could have fuel for up to nine nuclear bombs within a week. This, in violation of every nuclear restriction accord Iran had signed with the West.

Iran also was producing over 100 ballistic missiles a month, moving towards a situation where Iranian missile and drone stocks could overwhelm the defense of Israel and every American base in the region. Iran also was moving its nuclear and missile manufacturing facilities into bunkers buried too deeply underground for effective strikes against them.

In a historic joint military effort involving over 15,000 air strikes over the past six weeks, the US and Israeli air forces eviscerated Iranian air defenses, wrecked the Iranian navy and air force, destroyed Iranian missile launchers, stockpiles, and manufacturing sites, smashed Iranian plants and energy facilities that fed the nuclear and ballistic missile industries, assassinated senior scientists critical to the nuclear and missile industries, eliminated army commanders and leaders of internal repression forces by the thousands, and decapitated the radical clerical leadership which provided genocidal validation for Iran’s hegemonic advances.

Even without capture of Iran’s highly enriched uranium (which reportedly has been buried in the ruins of Isfahan ever since Operation Midnight Hammer last year), Iran likely has no ability to produce a nuclear bomb at this stage since the entire manufacturing chain in which Iran advanced toward a bomb was hit.

The war also deepened the economic pit in which Iran is mired. The US and Israel targeted significant dual-use infrastructure, including petrochemical processing facilities and steel production plants which collectively account for 15 percent of Iran’s total GDP and over 60 percent of its non-oil industrial output.

The current US blockade of Hormuz threatens Iran’s last remaining financial lifeline: oil revenue, which accounts for 50 percent of the state budget.

OVERALL, Iran lost strategic, military, infrastructural, and economic assets. It wrecked its relations with Arab Gulf states too, since it hit them with over 6,000 missiles and drones – ending up in splendid regional isolation.

Notably, Iran struggled to mount a meaningful military response against American and Israeli forces, whether through its own capabilities or via proxies. Iran’s defense arrays and supposedly formidable intelligence services were exposed as porous. Iranians witnessed the regime’s humiliation.

This importantly reveals the gap between reality and radical Islamic propaganda which had portrayed Iran as a power on the march, shaping the region around itself. The war also shattered the regime’s internal legitimacy. A state that commands genuine consent does not need to kill on a grand scale to clear the streets.

Indeed, Iran’s conduct during the war underscored the inevitability of the war. The Islamic Republic launched ferocious missile and drone attacks against its Arab neighbors, used cluster munitions against Israeli civilians, blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, and targeted points well beyond the region with heretofore hidden ballistic missile capacity.

Iran’s behavior clearly demonstrated that it cannot be trusted, that it poses a grave threat to regional and global security, and that it must be denied the ability to develop and deliver the ultimate weapon.

In sum, the six-week war was launched with coherent cause and purpose. It was a moral and necessary endeavor, it was a successful skirmish, and it changed the strategic picture for the better.

Imminent Iranian threats were neutralized, Iran’s strategic capabilities suffered a severe (although reversible) blow, and the regime’s stability was shaken – even if it totters on for a while.

HAVING triumphed in war, American and Israel must now win the narrative over the war, upholding the morality of the campaign and asserting the justice of the harsh restrictions on Iran going forward that are essential.

Preserving war gains requires prevention of Iran’s recovery – unless and until the country forgoes its threatening military programs and aggressive regional posture. The only way for Iran to recover is by accepting deescalation on American terms.

To this end, the US must continue to choke Iran (no significant sanctions relief); isolate Iran (prevent soft European or Gulf Arab overtures to Iran); maintain military pressure on Iran (no near-term withdrawal of American forces from the region); ride herd on the enriched uranium (and strike again any reactivated nuclear development site); and support the emergence of a muscular Iranian opposition movement (supply them with weapons).

As for Israel: Well, Israelis learned an important lesson which is to maintain a proactive defense posture including strategic ascendancy against the biggest and farthest enemies. Through outstanding military planning and execution, and with a staunch Great Power ally, Israel defeated Iran and can do it again.

Israel defeated Iran even though that country is 10 times larger than Israel, is over 1,000 kilometers away from Israel, and was fueling four proxy armies on Israel’s borders comprising tens of thousands of fighters with hundreds of thousands of rockets.

Equally important is the forbearance of Israelis, who showed that they can heroically weather full-scale war with Iran – in fact, two wars within one year.

Even during the war’s most intense days, the economy stayed open. Roads damaged by enemy warheads were repaved and reopened to traffic within hours. Discipline regarding homeland defense guidelines was impressive. Those who nevertheless lost their homes to Iranian bombs or were wounded are being well cared for. Families celebrated the Purim and Passover holidays quietly and cautiously, at home. Israelis are resilient.

The hardship was worth it. After all, the alternative to this successful war – a surging Iran armed with nuclear weapons and thousands of ballistic missiles – would have been enormously worse than anything Israelis have endured.

Published in The Jerusalem Post & Israel Hayom 17.04.2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

The claim now echoing around television studios – that the war against Iran has gone off the rails – does not withstand scrutiny.

Iran’s 10-point proposal contained nothing that met a single US demand. Yet one hour before President Donald Trump’s deadline, a ceasefire was agreed. That gap between what Iran offered and what Trump accepted is the story.

Under the ceasefire, the US and Israel halted strikes against the Ayatollah regime’s assets in exchange for the full reopening of the Hormuz Strait. Hezbollah in Lebanon is not yet covered, but pressure is building to include it.

What drove this sudden reversal? Iran had rejected US demands as delusional. Trump responded with escalating threats, promising “hell” and warning that power plants and civilian infrastructure were in his sights. Then, channelled through Pakistan, Tehran’s 10-point proposal landed. Trump declared it a workable basis for talks. It gave him the ladder he needed to climb down.

The proposal itself was a maximalist wish list: full sanctions relief, the release of all frozen assets, continued nuclear enrichment, US military withdrawal from the Middle East, and UN Security Council guarantees for any future agreement. Far from narrowing the gap, it codified Iran’s pre-war ambitions. The distance between the two sides had not closed by a single step.

This posture is consistent with Tehran’s established playbook. Despite degraded capabilities and the loss of senior leadership figures, the regime’s core objectives are unchanged. Iran has a documented record of using sanctions relief and unfrozen assets to accelerate its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, not to moderate its behaviour. A deal built on these terms would fund the next confrontation.

Why, then, did Trump agree? Several pressures converged: the economic shock of Hormuz disruptions; resistance from within his own inner circle; and, perhaps, impatience at a conflict that was not moving toward resolution quickly enough. None of these fully explains the decision. Ultimately, it was a political call, and the reasoning behind it will only become clear in what follows.

The central question now is whether Trump is buying time for the next phase of the war, or whether he genuinely believes diplomacy can achieve what the military pressure was designed to force. Both readings remain live. A pause to stabilise the global economy, manage domestic politics, and let Pakistan-brokered talks play out before potentially resuming military action is a coherent strategy. Less convincing, though still possible, is the belief that a chastened Iran might negotiate its way to a different future. The two scenarios require different things over the next few weeks.

The talks in Islamabad will be led by Vice President JD Vance, long seen as sceptical of military intervention. That choice is itself ambiguous: a negotiator perceived as reluctant to escalate may be more credible to Tehran as a pragmatist, or he may be precisely the signal Trump is sending that he is open to a real exit from the conflict while planning exactly the opposite. Vance’s mandate will tell us which.

The venue is not incidental. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state that recently signed a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia and publicly called for the destruction of Israel, has now positioned itself as the indispensable mediator in one of the most consequential conflicts of the post-Cold War era. Anchored in close personal and business ties to Trump’s circles, Pakistan’s role carries strategic weight far beyond these negotiations and is a reason for concern.

The ceasefire buys time. But time alone changes nothing if the fundamental premise is wrong. The history of negotiations with the Islamic Republic is a history of agreements made, violated, and exploited. Not only because some of the terms were poorly drafted but also because the regime’s survival depends on confrontation, not coexistence. A government that funds proxy armies, pursues nuclear weapons in defiance of the world, and derives its legitimacy from hostility to the West and its neighbours cannot be negotiated into becoming something it is not.

The Pakistan talks may produce a document. They will not produce a different Iran. The only path to genuine peace for the region, and above all for the Iranian people who have lived under this regime’s boot for four decades, runs not through an agreement with the Ayatollahs, but through their removal. Trump knows this. The question is whether he has the resolve to see it through.

Published in Firstpost, April 11, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.

“They had an impressive ability to take punishment. They gave us their word that they wouldn’t be shooting at ships anymore, and we honor that.”

These words were spoken by Donald Trump, not in recent days, and not in connection with Iran. They were said in May of last year, regarding the Houthis in Yemen, shortly after the president announced the end of the military operation against them. At the time, he responded to Oman’s mediation initiative and decided to cease fire without removing the threat. In February of this year, in the wake of the war with Iran, the Houthis resumed attacks on Israel.

President Trump does not need this lesson from the Houthi episode to understand whom he is dealing with on the Iranian side. He himself has repeatedly accused the regime in Tehran of lying and breaking promises. The representatives who will arrive today for talks in Islamabad represent that same regime. Some of the faces have changed, but the ideological outlook remains as it was. They will sit at the negotiating table with a sense of confidence, encouraged by their success in withstanding the American-Israeli war machine, in turning the Strait of Hormuz and the vulnerability of the Gulf states into effective leverage on Washington, and in casting doubt on the prospects of regime change.

Tehran knows that none of this compensates for Iran’s losses or conceals the weaknesses exposed during the war. After the previous blow in Operation Roaring Lion, it suffered another severe surprise attack, this time while braced for war. It lost its supreme leader and a sizable portion of its political and security leadership. Its defense arrays and formidable intelligence services were exposed as porous in the face of American-Israeli capabilities. It lost strategic, military, infrastructural, and economic assets; damaged its relations with regional states; remained in striking isolation without any external support; and struggled to mount a meaningful military response against American and Israeli forces, whether through its own capabilities or via proxy actors. The war deepened the economic pit in which it had already been mired beforehand. In many areas, Iranian systems were set back by years.

Despite all this, Iran arrives at the negotiating table not from a position of surrender, but with bargaining leverage. It has managed to optimally combine the use of its remaining capabilities with the constraints and concerns in Washington, thereby maximizing pressure on the White House. Tehran is well aware of four major American concerns: a prolonged war, the introduction of ground forces, rising energy prices, and the possibility that enriched uranium remains in Iranian hands.

What is Iran trying to achieve now? In simple terms: conditions that will ensure the regime’s survival and enable Iran’s rehabilitation and rebuilding.

Iran is demanding guarantees against the resumption of war, the establishment of a new order in the Strait of Hormuz that would increase its economic control there, the lifting of economic sanctions, and an arrangement that leaves enrichment capabilities in its hands. It opposes restrictions on its missile program, and will not commit to practical steps that would endanger the existence of its proxy organizations.

Once the fire has ceased, the regime’s leaders in Tehran view negotiations more as an opportunity to extract the resources and conditions necessary for recovery than as a source of pressure against them.

From Israel’s perspective, even though it did not achieve all its aims, its strategic position today is far better than it was on the eve of the war: Iran’s strategic capabilities have suffered a severe though not irreversible blow; the regime’s stability has been shaken, even if it remains standing; Israel has once again demonstrated its military strength to the region and the world; and it has positioned itself as a leading strategic partner of the United States, not as a dependent or a protégé.

The primary challenge Washington will face in any arrangement with Iran is preventing the regime’s recovery. The easing of military pressure alone will provide the conditions for this, certainly if the current economic sanctions are lifted.

The second challenge is preventing restrictions on Israel’s freedom of action against Iran or against the proxy organizations it operates. The regime’s attempt to incorporate Lebanon into the current ceasefire points in this direction. Israel must insist on preserving its freedom of action against any enemy and any threat, in every front, including Hezbollah.

Another challenge is the nuclear issue. Its placement third does not reflect its importance. This is not only about removing and destroying the enriched uranium in Iran’s possession, but also about preventing enrichment at any level on Iranian soil and establishing effective oversight mechanisms that will permanently prevent the possibility of producing or acquiring nuclear weapons.

After witnessing Iran’s performance in the current war, and previously in Operation Roaring Lion and the “Night of Missiles,” there is no need to argue for the necessity of restrictions on its missile program. A state that has turned missiles into a thriving industry, for itself and for its proxy organizations, and that deliberately, systematically targets population centers across the region cannot be left with capabilities that enable it to continue doing so.

Another challenge is ending Iran’s support for its proxy organizations. This, too, is linked to the resources that Iran will have at its disposal to rebuild its capabilities, and constitutes an additional argument against lifting economic sanctions.

Trump understands that any negotiation with representatives of the regime is not interpreted merely as a concession on the aspiration to topple it, but also as strengthening its legitimacy and potentially paving the way for its reinforcement. Despite his declarations, it is reasonable to assume that the president also believes that as long as this regime exists, it will not change its ambitions or alter its course. On the contrary, the current war will serve as proof for those within it who believe that a military nuclear capability is essential for ensuring its survival, and, as a result, it will spare no effort to achieve that goal.

To preserve the chances of regime change, Iran’s severe economic condition must be maintained.

The Iranian protesters, who are still waiting for a green light from the president, may ultimately act on their own when they recognize the opportunity, so long as the regime’s distress persists. At the very least, that is something Israel must ensure.

Published in  Israel Hayom, April 11, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.