written by Asher Fredman | 16.10.2025
A Palestinian state, in the sense of a sovereign entity responsible for its own military build-up and deployment, borders, airspace, electromagnetic spectrum, and treaties with foreign powers, would pose an existential threat to Israel.
It would lead to severe and repeated conflict in the region, undermine the stability of moderate Arab states, and imperil key US interests. The idea of enabling the establishment of a fully independent Palestinian entity that could lead to another October 7-scale attack against Israel’s major metropolitan centers must be rejected.
The sooner that idea is relegated to the dustbin of failed proposals, the sooner a constructive discussion can begin on new paradigms for a stable, peaceful, and prosperous Palestinian future.
Experience and reality
The determination that an independent Palestinian state would pose an existential threat to Israel and constitute a source of severe regional instability is not based on conjecture but on experience and current realities.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) has existed since 1994. The more than three decades since the Oslo Accords provide a clear indication of the nature and characteristics of a future Palestinian state. Only those whose political worldview remains mired in wishful thinking or illusions can ignore the evidence.
In a best-case scenario, a future Palestinian state would be controlled by the non-Hamas factions that make up the PA.
The PA, contrary to the moderate image it attempts to project in the West, continues to glorify and reward terrorism, portray the mass murderers of Jews as national heroes, and promote the belief that Israel will soon be wiped off the map.
Dozens of PA schools, summer camps, and streets are named after terrorists responsible for the cold-blooded murder of Jews. Official Palestinian Authority media repeats again and again the message that incarcerated and “martyred” terrorists are role models.
Another core element of Palestinian national discourse and education is the so-called “right of return,” the idea that the descendants of Arabs who left Israel in 1948 have the right to return to their former homes.
The result, of course, of millions of Palestinians “returning” to Israel would be to erase Israel’s existence as a Jewish state. PA President Mahmoud Abbas even wore a key-shaped pin during his 2025 United Nations address in order to emphasize this national aspiration.
The most prominent example of the PA’s encouragement of terror is the “pay to slay” system, in which it sends hundreds of millions of dollars to incarcerated terrorists and the families of terrorists who were killed.
Following international pressure, the PA carried out a bureaucratic reorganization with the aim of whitewashing such payments via a non-governmental organization.
However, 10 out of the 11 board members of this supposedly “independent” organization are PA employees and representatives, which include a PA minister and six undersecretaries.
The systemic Palestinian terror incitement leads to terror attacks. Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem attempted to carry out more than 1,250 serious terror attacks in 2024, with approximately 80% being foiled by Israel’s security services – an impressive record but far from perfect.
Not only did the PA fail to prevent these attacks, but some of them were carried out by members of the PA security forces themselves.
Hamas would dominate
The most likely scenario in the event of the establishment of a Palestinian state is that it would quickly be dominated by Hamas and other Islamist terror groups. Hamas is the most popular political party in the West Bank.
A Palestinian poll from May 2025 revealed that Hamas is approximately 50% more popular than Abbas’s Fatah faction and that 59% of West Bankers still believe that Hamas’s decision to launch the October 7, 2023, attack was correct.
It must be recalled that in 2007, Hamas took over Gaza in six days, as PA and Fatah leaders fled. It is highly likely that Hamas would take over all or parts of a future Palestinian state.
The PA’s inability to clamp down on terrorist groups that take over its territory has already been demonstrated. In late 2024, armed Palestinian gangs seized the Jenin refugee camp, and the PA proved unable to retake control. Israel was eventually forced to intervene.
It is even less likely that the PA would be able to retake cities dominated by heavily armed Hamas battalions.
Given these realities, it is clear that a Palestinian state situated on the strategic hilltops overlooking Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Ben-Gurion Airport would be an existential threat to Israel.
The distance from the Palestinian city of Tulkarm in the West Bank to the Mediterranean coastline of Netanya is only nine miles. Several major Israeli population centers are only one to three miles from Palestinian cities.
A Palestinian state would enable the launching of rockets and missiles with almost no warning at Israel’s major metropolitan areas and critical infrastructure.
Indeed, in September 2025, the IDF broke up a terror cell near Ramallah that was developing rockets for precisely this purpose.
Pickup trucks of terrorists could roll into Israeli cities to carry out rampages of murder, kidnapping, and rape, just as they did on October 7. A sovereign Palestinian entity could disrupt Israel’s communications and threaten both civilian and military aircraft.
Regional threat
In light of such a threat, Israel would have no choice but to intervene forcefully, leading to repeated conflict. Such conflict would derail, time and again, progress toward regional cooperation and normalization.
Given the threat that the Muslim Brotherhood already poses to the Hashemite Kingdom in Amman and the [Egyptian] government in Cairo, a Hamas-infused Palestinian state would pose a grave threat to the stability of Jordan and Egypt.
An independent Palestinian state, capable of making concessions to foreign powers, would threaten critical US interests in other ways as well. In June 2023, Abbas traveled to Beijing to sign a China-PA “Strategic Partnership.”
The Palestinian Investment Fund announced plans for Chinese investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy projects.
In July 2024, Abbas’s Fatah party, Hamas, and 12 other Palestinian factions went to China to sign a “national unity” agreement under Chinese auspices. Palestinian polls show that China is extremely popular in the West Bank.
A Palestinian state deeply compromised by Chinese state companies, investments, and infrastructure could pose a threat to critical US assets in Israel, Jordan, and beyond.
In addition to its support of terror, all evidence indicates that a Palestinian state would be a corrupt autocracy with little respect for human rights, freedom of expression, or the rule of law.
In 2025, Freedom House ranked the PA as Not Free, noting, “The PA governs in an authoritarian manner, engaging in repression against journalists and activists who present critical views on its rule.”
The PA suffers from systemic corruption and mismanagement, and all calls for reform have failed to produce real change.
Alternative solutions
The question then is, what is the alternative? While space here does not allow for a thorough analysis of that question, a few brief points are in order.
The first is that there is no reason to assume that one uniform arrangement would exist throughout the West Bank. Israel could extend its sovereignty to certain strategic areas like the Jordan Valley, potentially offering citizenship or permanent residency to the Palestinian residents there.
Other areas could be controlled by regional or local authorities with different degrees of autonomy, based on their commitment to peaceful coexistence and combating terror.
The second important point is that there are numerous examples worldwide of states or regions that have varying degrees of independence or autonomy, where citizens vote only in their own elections, despite another state controlling elements of their security and external affairs.
Such arrangements, for example, in Palau, Monaco, and Macau, are considered legal and legitimate. Across the globe, and particularly in the Middle East, the realization of the principle of national self-determination takes varied forms.
A Palestinian state would be an existential threat to Israel and a disaster for the region. Israel cannot risk another October 7 and must ensure its own security.
The international community will need to pressure the Palestinians to abandon their culture of terror and embrace one of coexistence and cooperation. It would then be possible to shape a stable, peaceful, and prosperous future for Palestinians and the Middle East.Published in The Jerusalem Post, October 16, 2025.