The blockade currently looks far more attractive than war

Dr. Yossi Mansharof: If this is indeed the chosen strategy, it can only be effective if it receives sustained American support and cooperation from additional partners. Militarily, the U.S. and its allies have the capacity to enforce significant naval pressure on Iran over time, especially at the choke points of maritime trade routes. However, in my assessment, the central challenge is not military but political and economic.

The question is not whether such a blockade can be sustained for weeks or months, where the answer is most likely yes, but whether the international political consensus required for it can be preserved over an extended period. Ultimately, the blockade’s durability will be determined less by military capabilities and more by the political willingness of the U.S. and its allies to bear its costs and withstand the mounting international pressure.

Published in JNS, August 7, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.