A Fragile Ceasefire and a Weakened Iran

Kobi Michael argues that the region is entering a fundamentally new strategic phase, marked by a significantly weakened Iran—both at the regime and state levels. He frames the current ceasefire as unstable and likely temporary, with a high probability of renewed conflict driven primarily by Iran.

He also highlights internal fragmentation within Iran, tensions with regional actors such as Qatar, and a shift in strategic focus away from Hamas, which he describes as increasingly marginal in the broader Middle Eastern landscape.

A briefing together with Media Central for foreign journalists in Israel, which took place on April 9, 2026.

*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.