written by David M. Weinberg | 28.09.2025
Which of the following Mideast-related events can be expected in 5786 (2025-2026)? Take this quiz and calculate the year for which you need to be prepared. (My answers are at the end.)
1. Which of the following security-diplomatic developments will dominate in the coming year?
a. A series of Iranian-inspired terrorist attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets around the world in retaliation for Operation Rising Lion.
b. Another Israeli/American strike on Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile array.
c. A security accord between Israel and Syria.
d. Release by Hamas of all live and deceased Israeli hostages held in Gaza, accompanied by a long lull in Israeli military operations.
e. A deepening IDF drive into Gaza that lasts all year and amounts to a full-scale occupation.
f. One million Gazans will flee into Sinai and from there to refuge around the world, despite Egypt’s protestations and threats.
2. How will Israel’s relationships with Sunni powers develop?
a. Turkey’s hegemonic ambitions in the Mediterranean and Syria will lead to near-war with Israel. Israel will strenuously object to further US weapons sales to Ankara.
b. Israel will threaten military action unless Egypt scales back its aggressive and treaty-violating military buildup in Sinai. Israel will strenuously object to further US weapons sales to Cairo.
c. Abraham Accord partnerships with Morocco, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates will remain intact but frozen.
d. When a ceasefire in Gaza is reached, Abraham Accord partnerships will expand to Oman, Indonesia, Djibouti, Comoros, Mauritania, and eventually even Saudi Arabia.
3. What will be in French President Emmanuel Macron’s phony “State of Palestine”?
a. The so-called “State of Palestine” (a.k.a. the “Palestinian Authority”) will sign a treaty of protection with Turkey and Iran.
b. Mahmoud Abbas will die or be overthrown by one or more of the following Fatah leaders (who will battle succession out among themselves): Hussein al-Sheikh, Jibril Rajoub, Mahmoud al-Aloul, Majid Faraj, Marwan Barghouti, and Mohammed Dahlan.
c. Iran/Hamas will spark a wild wave of terrorism in Jerusalem and across Judea and Samaria. The IDF will have to retake Judea and Samaria to stem this assault and prevent a Hamas takeover of Macron’s “State of Palestine.”
d. To shore up the “State of Palestine,” Macron and other European leaders will fund a Palestinian space program and triple their funding of UNRWA, while tightening an arms embargo on Israel.
e. The “democratic and peaceful” State of Palestine will cease to “pay-for-slay” (support terrorists and their families), dismiss soldiers and policemen who have aided or participated in terror attacks on Israelis, criminalize and prosecute religious leaders and broadcasters who rail about Jews as subhuman forces of evil, introduce peace education in PA schools, and embrace water, sewage, industrial, and other cooperative projects with Israel.
4. Israel will extend its sovereignty to the following (“annexation”):
a. The Jordan Valley
b. The Jordan Valley and the greater Jerusalem envelope, including Ma’aleh Adumim and Gush Etzion
c. Area C (which includes all Israeli cities and towns in Judea and Samaria)
d. All of Judea and Samaria
e. None of the above, at least not until the next government is formed after the elections.
5. The 2026 Israeli election will be held in:
a. February-March (because the current Netanyahu government will fall swiftly when the Knesset winter session convenes in late October, mainly because of the haredi draft impasse).
b. June-July (because the government will fail to pass a state budget by the end of March 2026, mainly because of the haredi draft impasse).
c. September-October (because that is the outside limit of the current government, by law).
6. In the 2026 Israeli election:
a. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will triumphantly bow out of Israeli politics, after crushing Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, pulling off additional Abraham Accord-type treaties, and feeling vindicated by a feeble end to his criminal trials.
b. Prime Minister Netanyahu will run and win reelection, after crushing Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, pulling off additional Abraham Accord-type treaties, and feeling vindicated by a feeble end to his criminal trials. He will then stand for election to the post of president of Israel when President Isaac Herzog’s term ends in 2028.
c. Prime Minister Netanyahu will be run out of office by an Israeli public that holds him responsible for the security collapse on October 7, 2023, and the escalating regional conflicts that have ensued with no end in sight.
d. The attorney-general and the Supreme Court will rule, based on some concocted legal convention, that Netanyahu is barred from running for reelection.
e. Netanyahu will seek to postpone the election to 2027 or 2028 on the basis of an emergency security situation.
f. A fresh crop of brave, battle-tested, and ideologically motivated leaders will enter Israeli public life, breathing hope and inspiration into Israeli politics; the heroic mid-level commanders of the current war, and the equally heroic civil society leaders of today. They will tip the balance of Israeli politics.
g. Even after opposition parties unite into one large bloc for the purpose of winning against Netanyahu, and even after the entry into politics of new leaders and parties, the election result will be inconclusive – a hung jury. No centrist or stable government will be possible without including Likud or involving either haredi or Arab representatives.
7. If Benny Gantz, Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and/or Avigdor Liberman were to form the next Israeli government, they would manage diplomacy and security much better than Benjamin Netanyahu has, by doing which of the following?
a. Cutting a swift hostage release deal with Hamas, then convincing Egypt to take control of Gaza.
b. Unilaterally withdrawing Israeli troops and settlers from significant sections of Judea and Samaria, and recognizing the “State of Palestine.”
c. Quickly reaching a peace accord with Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas, who would assume responsibility for Gaza and bring stability, good governance, and goodwill to the entire area.
d. Dropping Israel’s demand for total dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear and missile arrays, and instead partnering with the E-3 and IAEA to reach an accommodation with Iran.
e. All the above answers are ridiculous. None of this is wise nor feasible, and none of Israel’s leaders would go there, despite the fantasies of many global observers.
8. If, on one day, 5,000 rockets were to be fired into populated areas of Paris, London, Ottawa, and Canberra (never mind if this were to continue for two years amounting to over 30,000 rockets and missiles), and 1,200 citizens of these countries were slaughtered (not to mention raped, tortured and/or kidnapped) – what would be the “proportionate response” of Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, Mark Carney, and Anthony Albanese?
a. They would seek to invest billions in the attacker’s economy to improve quality of life and squelch the urge of the attackers to further hit France, Britain, Canada, and Australia. They also would cheerfully and generously pay out billions of dollars in “humanitarian aid” to feed the population that elected the terrorist attackers, without serious supervision of how the funds are used (meaning, diverted for military rearming).
b. They would vote for a UN Security Council resolution calling on “all sides” to exercise “restraint,” then convene an international conference to accord “state” status to the attacking terrorist enemy.
c. They would erase the leadership of the attacking party from the face of the earth. And then carpet-bomb the attacking zone to kingdom come, as the Allies did in World War II.
9. The most important prayer that Israelis can offer this Yom Kippur is:
a. A prayer for national calm and mutual consideration, even amid a controversial war and a hotly contested election campaign.
b. A prayer for enhanced Zionist spirit and backbone, including renewed commitment to national service and winning against Israel’s enemies.
c. A prayer for the hostages, wounded soldiers, and war widows/orphans.
d. “Oh Lord God, to whom vengeance belongs: Oh God to whom vengeance belongs, shine forth! Lift up yourself, you judge of the earth. Render to the proud their recompense. Lord, how long shall the wicked, how long shall the wicked triumph?… The Lord is my defense, and my God the rock of my refuge. He brings (upon the enemy) their own iniquity, and He cuts them off in their own wickedness…” (Psalm 94)
e. All the above.
MY ANSWERS:
1. Alas, not d or f.