Prof. Kobi Michael: Direct Israeli-Turkish military confrontation remains unlikely because both countries are close US partners and Washington retains strong leverage over each. That we have already reached the edge, and it cannot be worse than that, because Turkey and Israel are very close allies of the United States.
Erdoğan sees opportunity in Iranian weakness, regional disorder, and Israel’s diplomatic troubles. Erdoğan has hegemonic aspirations in the broader Middle East. He perceives Turkey and perceives himself as the leader of the Sunni world and of a future Ottoman empire. Erdoğan sees now an opportunity, a window of opportunity when Iran is weaker. In his view, that opportunity is reinforced by Israel’s weaker international standing and by ideological changes inside Turkey that make a near-term reset unlikely.
Published in The Media Line,& The Jerusalem Post April 15, 2026.
*The opinions expressed in Misgav publications are the authors’ alone.
