Middle East

Under pressure from the US president, the IDF has stopped strikes on Hezbollah’s power centers. The terrorist organization, for its part, continues to violate the ceasefire. Israel must stop playing by Hezbollah’s rules in order to disrupt its operations. In Gaza, too, greater sophistication is needed in the face of Hamas’ military buildup, which could begin targeting IDF forces at any moment.

it may be worth considering whether sustained external pressure could weaken Iran’s central authority. Such a process might embolden ethnic and religious minorities to challenge the regime, potentially leading to fragmentation akin to the Libyan case. In such a scenario, Iran could lose its capacity to function as a coherent strategic actor, thereby reducing the scale of the threat it poses.

Israel must take into account that a substantial weakening of the Iranian regime could strengthen Turkey’s regional position, a challenge it will likely need to address sooner or later.

This lesson applies to the current fighting with the Lebanese terrorist organization, but it is even more important regarding decisions the United States and Israel will make about the next stages of war versus Iran. Partial success does not suffice.

Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates are causing significant damage, and patience in Abu Dhabi appears to be wearing thin. Even if the US and Israel destroy most of the missiles, one threat will continue to worry Gulf states until a new player joins the fight against the ayatollahs.

After years of restraint, the region’s states are now being compelled to recognize that standing aside is no longer tenable and that Tehran must be made to pay a price.

Some argue that the Houthis may seek to leverage the current confrontation to return to center stage and will not settle for symbolic backing alone.

Any deal with Tehran would serve as a lifeline for the regime. Ending the crisis without one, while tightening sanctions to hasten its collapse, is preferable to an agreement that might temporarily curb its ambitions but ultimately ensure its survival.

The US president has said he is willing to talk to Iran, but Israel must prove the risks inherent in any negotiations with Tehran. Israel should not sacrifice tangible assets in Syria in exchange for dubious arrangements, nor ignore the Kurds’ cry for help.

Territorial shifts in southern Yemen may help Israel counter the Houthis or deepen regional instability.