Prof. Kobi Michael: The main problem, which actually overlaps all the dimensions – political, security – is the idea that Hamas must be disarmed, dismantled and the Gaza Strip must be demilitarized. If these things will not happen, then nothing will happen.

This is something that works just, against the interest of Israel, because Turkey and Qatar are the biggest providers and supporters of Hamas. They do not intend to enable the disarmament of Hamas. On the contrary, they want Hamas to remain as a relative and influential player in the Gaza Strip and beyond.

A preferred scenario for Israel, is for the area Israel controls to be a testing ground for Trump’s phase two. In this area, Israel would maintain overriding security control as a technocratic Palestinian administration is set up, overseen by the Board of Peace with security carried out by an International Stabilization Force alongside newly trained Palestinian police.

Published in The Hill, December 13, 2025.