Following Hezbollah’s weakening on Lebanon’s internal front, compounded by its defeat by Israel, the country is experiencing profound upheaval.
Expert on Iran and Shiite political Islam. PhD on pro-Iranian transnational networks in the Persian Gulf.
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The terrorist organization rejected Lebanon’s historic August 7 government decision. The Lebanese prime minister sought to condition disarmament in talks with the Trump administration on an Israeli withdrawal from it’s outposts, but was rebuffed. Israel is benefiting from Hezbollah’s weakening under Naim Qassem’s leadership, while its ties with Iran have been damaged. Despite this, most of the country’s Shiites have remained loyal.
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Israel and Iran stand on the threshold of a new phase in their strategic confrontation, and Israel must act with heightened intelligence alertness.
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Under Khamenei’s directive, the regime will strive to preserve and also project its (faltering) image as a victorious force.
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A newly released archive photo shows Ali Shadmani and Hassan Nasrallah together, revealing another chapter in their strategic alliance.
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Khamenei’s core dilemma lies in balancing a response to the U.S. strike that maintains internal legitimacy without triggering war. Within Iran, pressure is mounting—from a frustrated public, economic hardship, and weakened trust in the regime’s deterrence posture. A misstep could deepen domestic unrest and expose the regime’s vulnerability more than any external threat ever could.